Trends of Academic Failure and Its Demographic Determinants among Medical Students in Zanjan University of Medical Sciences

Introduction: Study of academic failure can be helpful in identification of students at the risk of academic defeat and consequently leads to the prevention of material and human resource loss. As a result, this study was performed to determine the trends of academic failure and the determinants affecting it in Zanjan University of Medical Sciences. Methods: In this descriptive cross-sectional study, all undergraduate medical students’ (n=894) data including educational and demographic characteristics were collected through Student Recording System (SAMA), for a 19 year period. Then the association between demographic attributes and academic failure determinants was tested using Binomial logistic regression analysis. Descending and ascending trends of probation and failure were determined using ARIMA statistical test. Results: In total, 28.2% of students have experienced academic failure annually. The number of students and accordingly academic failure showed a reducing trend during the years 1991-2000 but students’ admission and dropouts have had a growing trend during the following decade. The most significant explanatory variables affecting academic failure are age, gender (male), and prior qualification criteria such as quota system. Conclusion: Trends of academic failure have been affected by admission rates of medical students during the last two decades and the main determinants are educational variables and university admission criteria. Considering policies for plans to increase the number of medical students during last years, the rates of academic failure without supportive measures focused on vulnerable students, will not be avoidable.